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this post was submitted on 30 Dec 2024
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The money quote. And yeah there's no way Russia accepts Europeans holding the line without things getting much worse. Russia isn't even close to running out of people or war material.
Lol they have tanks for a couple of months left, and the ruble is in free fall, putin can't consript more people and they rely on north corean shells and weapons.
Yeah they are running out.
You people say the same thing for 3 years by now and it didn't happened.
Those predictions said: “if things stay the course, Russia will run out”. Things didn't stay the course: Russia got drones from Iran, shells and soldiers from North Korea, and so on.
Also people including Europe kept buying Russian gas because they don't care that much.
Well the gas stops tomorrow.
Russia is replacing their tanks at about an 80 percent rate. That's not great but it's not disastrous in the short term. And people are people. The only real problem he has right now is the Ruble. But he's spent decades knowing he needed to harden his economy. So I'm not going to count on his economy blowing up until it actually happens.
They replaced lost tanks with 10 new per month and hundreds refurbished ones from storage.
The problem for russia is there are no more modern tanks at all in storage, and all the older in good or mediocre condition has been used up.
So they are literally refurbishing 50 year old carcasses from the junkyard today, that is why you see museum pieces on the battlefield like the t55 and t64.
They have roughly 3-4 months left so they will have to slow down with the usage.
Same story for BTRs and infantry fighting vehicles. That is why you see attacks on motorcycles, golfcarts and just on foot.
They are running out.
The ruble is in freefall.
2025 will be the end of the war and hopefully the end of the russian regime too.
I sure hope so. The thing is that the Russians have always depended mostly on ERA to up-armor their tanks. They did it specifically to be able to throw stuff like the T-62 back into battle. (It's a mix of T-55 and T-64 parts that was a budget creation in the 1970's) And at the end of the day a mobile hunk of armor with a gun is a really big problem for the other side. That's why the West fields medium or even light armor vehicles with 105 or 120 mm guns. As long as the enemy needs an anti tank rocket to penetrate it and it can blow out field fortifications it's a really good investment. (Until recently the US Army light infantry used up-armored humvees with wire guided TOW missiles for this role. Just to show how flexible it can be) And Russian armor will always be somewhat up to date as long as the ERA was attached. They just won't be as accurate, fast, or reliable as modern vehicles.
So when they say they're losing 90 tanks a month and replacing 70 tanks a month it doesn't really matter that they're not the newest stuff. And it's having enough of an impact that even with those horrendous losses they're advancing.
You're mixing up BTR and Tank here, and they play different roles in combat. If you don't have any tanks left in the batallion, you will probably use a BTR. But when you don't have any BTR you'll use a IFV and when they run out of those you go on a motorcycle or in a civilian car like a lada, or by foot.
That's what is already happening.
Also I see not much Explosive Reactive Armour on those tanks from the sixties lol.
Running out is like a bag of candy, you can always grab more, until suddenly, you cannot grab anything any more.
Russia is scratching the bottom already, and will soon run out, with the exception of a handfull new ones a month, and maybe some North Korean ones lol, they already depends on them for basic shells.
I guarantee you I'm not mixing up BTRs, IFVs, and tanks in their numbers. I brought up the Humvee example to show how flexible the specific concept is, not because I thought it was a tank or IFV.
And I just hope you're right.
Yeah, I hope so too.
Slava Ukraine & the free world!