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this post was submitted on 07 Jan 2025
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Asklemmy
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Plus 3/4 of state legislatures to ratify which would be another high bar
There's a reason why there's so few constitutional amendments
I think both parts are doable, and I see no reason Republicans wouldn't try. It seems likely that we are going to see Federal election laws over the next couple years to strengthen GOP control, in addition to the local and state level laws we are already dealing with. This is all going to further strengthen their hold and I think we could see 2/3 majority in both houses in 2026.
Honestly I think the 3/4 would be the easier part. Since it's done by state instead of electorates he just needs 38 states, and he got 31 to vote for him. We're also talking about state legislatures, not voters, which means the shenanigans above will also be effective here.
I don't think this is going to be Trump's first step; this is going to be the capstone on a campaign to secure power for the party forever.
I am sincerely hoping I'm wrong, but the last decade has shown me I am not nearly pessimistic enough.
Elections are not run federally, they are run by each state which makes it harder for Republicans to be as aggressive as they'd like to be
Mind you they lost a US house seat this cycle even with Trump winning. They have just a 3 seat majority. They would need a gain of +70 seats in the house in a midterm environment to get to 2/3
On the senate side, Republicans would need to pick up 12(!) seats to get 2/3. In the 2026 map, that's extraordinarily difficult and would require winning extremely deep blue seats. 66 senators is a lot. They would have to win literally every single senate seat up for election in 2026
Assuming they win all the solid red + lean red seats, they would need to defend both senators in North Carolina and Maine to keep 53. Then they'd have to flip the tossups of Michigan and Georgia to get to 55. Then the lean blue Minnesota senate seat to get to 56.
Then the very likely blue seats of New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire to get to 60. Then to get to 66, they would need to win the safe blue states of Oregon, Illinois, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island to get 66
Midterms are usually very unfavorable to the party in power. Even with more stringent voter laws, that would be a tall ask. Flipping safe blue senate senates where dems have state and local control would be insane
And you'd have to flip a large number of state legislature in deep blue states too