55
Fortunately, there's no way something so unlikely as 7% could realistically happen. The odds would be a thousand to one.
1/3
He's already shown he's willing to interfere with and straight up ignore the results of an electron. He's also willing to use the army as his personal goon squad, and has has support from the other branches. He's also perfectly capable of spinning a narrative that the election was "stolen"
On the other hand, properly executing a coup is hard, and also old: It's entirely possible he dies in office. (of natural causes or otherwise)
About 50/50. SCOTUS has already ruled that the 3rd section of the 14th amendment to the US constitution doesn't mean what it plainly says, so there's no real hope that they'd uphold the 22nd.
The only reason I place it that low is because he's ripe for a fatal heart attack or stroke.
about 12
1 percent. There's too much they would need to do in four years to not have an election and elections are done by the states not the federal government. So there will definitely be an election. As far as getting re-elected it would take draconian measures for the exact same reason. He'd need 270 electoral votes worth of states to blatantly go against the Constitution.
The only way he remains in office past January 20th 2029 is by refusing to leave and surrounding himself with loyalists. Thus the 1 percent chance. It could work if a million things go exactly right.
And him not dying before then too
Almost zero, but not because I believe in American democracy. I think the techno-fascist machine will grind forward regardless of Trump being in office.
Exactly. If it wasn’t clear in 2016, it certainly is now - Trump is a symptom, not the root problem
Democrats are practically shoving the voting base towards trump. Their whole selling point is "saving the system that's starving you".
Trump promised to destroy it, and destroy it he will. Not for us of course.
Same thing happened in 1930s Germany. Nornal parties were just gonna keep things going, while people had to use wheelbarrows of cash to buy a loaf and Hitler promised to destroy it all and make Germany the greatest its ever been.
You might believe that the following facts are besides your point, but I still want to get this straight:
- Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic reached its peak in 1923
- the NSDAP (the nazi party) got only 2% of the vote in the 1928 elections
- Hitler rose to power in 1933, after getting over 40% of the vote.
Note that there were 4 national elections between 1930 and 1933. The Weimar Republic was about as stable politically as a house of cards on a trampoline.
It's still true that part of the success of Hitler's party was due to former non-voters losing fate in the established parties, especially in regards to economic policy, but it is not as direct of a connection as your comment makes it out to be.
load more comments
(1 replies)
Ya i think people still aren’t seeing that the Billionaire class is why he won. He isn’t pulling the strings he is just the puppet.
Exactly, a relevant passage from This Soviet World by Anna Louise Strong
After all we just witnessed?
Four years stalling courts and avoiding punishment for insurrection, theft of classified documents, etc.
Getting legal permission to break any law he pleases.
Convincing even democrats that tge constitution, specifically the Fourteenth amendment, means nothing and isn’t worth acting on.
Openly planning the worst possible cabinet.
Not having any investigation or action on votes from targeted minorities get Jim Crow’d away.
No recounts when suspicious vote trends are spotted.
Survival of an assassination attempt.
… Yeah I’m going high. 70% chance minumum if he wants to. He could just order a public hit on the next in line as a presidential act. Clearly no one will stop him.
There should not BE a timeline where he succeeded the second time. The fact that there is implies he can do literally anything he wants.
i agree - he can change any law he wants
I suspect he won't do another two full terms, but not because of any inherent virtue in the system. I think it'll just come down to biology. He's 78, not in good health anyway and about to enter a very high-stress job. If he's still going at 86 I'll be surprised.
And that's assuming the cabal of demented fascists he's assembled around him don't tear him apart the second he shows any sign of weakness or of no longer being useful to them, which they definitely will.
1/3 normal election with new candidate 1/3 trump dies for whatever reason, probably choking on taco bell 1/3 fascist takeover (though the term "president" may not apply, and it may not be him running things). I think enough dems would flip if threatened with terrorism charges for normal politics being interpreted as protest or whatever other laws originally made in reaction to far right acts of terror.
So imo, 50%, mostly because we have 4 years of extremely uncertain change that can occur.
Imagine maga nuts storming McDonald's because trump died on a bigmac
In other words, you are asking whether Trump will find a way, legally or otherwise, to invalidate the POTUS term limit?
I agree he'll certainly try, but unless things turn really poorly over the next four years, I'd say his chances of doing so are really, infinitesimally low.
And I will further predict that the closer he gets to doing so, the higher the risk that he'll be a further assassination target.
The man is old af. 8 years is too long either way.
A third term really isn't that much of a stretch. The 22nd Amendment was poorly drafted. Or perhaps more specifically, poorly drafted for our political era.
In order to approve a Trump third term, SCOTUS really wouldn't need to come to an incredibly stretched conclusion. According to the letter of the Constitution, the requirements to be president such as term limits only apply to being elected president. Read from a strict literalist perspective, these requirements don't apply to achieving the powers of Acting President through the line of succession.
So Trump could get a third term through being appointed Acting President through the line of presidential succession. He would have two flunkies run for President and Vice President. They run promising to immediately resign after being sworn in. MAGA arranges to have Trump appointed Speaker of the House. When the two flunkies resign, Trump would immediately become Acting President and serve the remainder of the flunky president's term. In terms of actual powers, there is virtually no difference between being President or Acting President.
Again, it really wouldn't require a super stretched interpretation of the Constitution for SCOTUS to rule this as a valid method. The writers of the 22nd Amendment wrote the amendment to say, "No person shall be elected to the office of the President..." They should have written it, "No person shall be elected to or hold the powers of the office of the President..." They didn't consider that someone could try to deliberately become president in a way that doesn't involve being elected president.
There's never been case law on this, because no one has ever been vain enough to try and use this loophole to get a third term. But according to a strict reading of the Constitution, someone can absolutely serve a third term this way. Hell, this would also be a path for someone like Elon Musk, who is not a native-born citizen, to become president.
Greater than 50%, mostly due to the complete spinlessness of the greater USian population. People used to riot for less, and often.
I'd say like 20%. Not unlikely he'll try but there will be pushback. Also his age and health or an assassin might well get to him first. He might try going for a family dynasty instead, with Donald Jr following him.
or an assassin
I'm absolutely convinced, between the previous attempts and every single legal issue of any consequence, that he literally is "Teflon Don."
If an assassin actually gets a clear shot, it will somehow bounce off and kill whoever is actually running against Trump. That's the timeline we live in. The joke one.
New Trump conspiracy just dropped:
It turns out Trump actually does have a superpower. He can Groundhog Day himself at will. He can create a save state of reality and load it at will. Or he can set up time loop of up to say, 6 months in length. He won the election because he literally ran that campaign hundreds, perhaps thousands or tens thouands of times before finally getting it right. He's save scumming reality. Though, this is also the reason he talks so oddly and is all screwed up. Thousands of subjective years giving political speeches just fries your brain.
That already happened except the victim was his supporter.
He’s been using that experimental DoD bulletproof spray tan
load more comments
(1 replies)
Donald jr following him.
Id rather kill myself right now than live in that reality.
1% or less.
-
They probably wont nullify the 2 term limit, can't easily go back and after trump, will there be a democrat monarch?
-
He wants fame and wealth, he will burn everything to get it. In this term he will burn the most of the bridges with his backers.
-
His actions will accelerate the victory or death of his backers. Either his backers wont need him or cant back him, so he probably will get waning support.
-
He may not live until the end of his term, let alone a third.
-
He is too prideful, he wont bow to being a VP and will pull something that will sabotage the president on ticket.
-
U.S.A. or the world may be destroyed in the next 5 or so years.
-
He will try at least 1 coup this term, i'd be suprised if it wasn't more. He will fail and/or drag the nation to civil war in the process. He doesn't have the backing of the army and not all states are under him
For any of these reasons or a combination therof, makes him serving a third term highly, highly unlikely.
- They're going to install Vance the moment they think they can.
I mean, there's more chances to get infinite terms than only 2
10%.
- Chance he runs for vice president and wins, with the presidential candidate resigning promptly: 5%
- Chance he cancels or significantly delays election: 3%
- Chance he successfully refuses to leave office after election using force: 2%
Here are all the ways that doesn't happen:
- Chance he dies of natural causes: 70% - it's about one in three per year for a man in his early 80s, which would give us 1-0.66^4 = 81% for four years, but he has access to the best possible medical care
- Chance he runs for vice president and wins, with the presidential candidate promising to resign promptly, and is betrayed: 10%
- Chance he attempts to cancel or delay the election and fails: 10%
- Chance he refuses to leave office after election and is removed: 10%
These things have a less than 1% chance:
- Constitutional amendment
- Supreme court allows him to run for a third term in violation of the unambiguous text of the constitution
Chance he cancels or significantly delays election: 3%
The bird flu is starting to look like it could be a serious threat. Given that he already attempted an insurrection once, I wouldn't put it past him to intentionally turn it into another pandemic, then generously decide that this time he's going to take it seriously and lock everything down in 2028 (while simultaneously banning all states from using mail-in ballots).
Would be difficult for him to do so via any legal means. Each individual States run elections. They are not federally run, even for federal offices per the US constitution
Election days are similarly set by the US constitution
The bar to change that is quite high with 2/3 of congress + 3/4 of state legislatures to ratify. And while Supreme Court is insane, they did recently ruled 6-3 against the insane independent state legislature theory (which would have meant even state courts could not rule on anything election related) which is related to the exact piece of the constitution
Chance he runs for vice president and wins, with the presidential candidate promising to resign promptly, and is betrayed: 10%
For this one, it also depends on how the Supreme Court rules on the 12th amendment. That amendment states that anyone who is unqualified to be president is likewise unqualified to be vice president, but there is some uncertainty as to whether or not it only applies to people unqualified to be president or if it includes people unqualified to run as president.
I'd say 90% chance the conservative-stacked Supreme Court side with Trump because the conservative justices are originalists and the 12th's interaction with the 22nd was not intended when the 12th was written, but 10% chance they decide he's unqualified to be Vice President so as to keep the door closed for Dems who might try the same thing.
It's the wording of the 22nd amendment that makes this a possible outcome (emphasis added):
No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice
It could have said "no person shall serve as president for more than two terms" or similar wording, but it does not. I agree with you that conservative justices are likely to use this interpretation.
zero. it would require 2/3rds of the senate and that will not happen. they barely have the house.
If they want to do it by the book. Could just say the election is postponed due to martial law and the invasion from Mexico or Canada or whoever really it doesn’t seem to matter.
High chance he dies or goes full dementia in the next four years though. If he were 50 the chances of him stealing another term would be a lot higher. Prob just rig it more than it already is so they can’t lose and pick his successor.
load more comments
(4 replies)
5%. Pray this timeline does not roll a 5 or less in a d100
- The scaremongering about this is hysterical.
You've got four more years of the orange clown and then he'll finally fuck off.
I admire your optimism. It would take a constitutional amendment, which I don't think he would have any issues getting past the GOP Congress. After that it's less likely, but still possible with his shenanigans. I think the only reason it wouldn't happen is he croaks first.
But a constitutional amendment requires a two thirds vote in congress. It’s an even higher bar to clear than the filibuster. There aren’t enough republican seats to do it on their own. It would have to have bipartisan support.
Plus 3/4 of state legislatures to ratify which would be another high bar
There's a reason why there's so few constitutional amendments
I think both parts are doable, and I see no reason Republicans wouldn't try. It seems likely that we are going to see Federal election laws over the next couple years to strengthen GOP control, in addition to the local and state level laws we are already dealing with. This is all going to further strengthen their hold and I think we could see 2/3 majority in both houses in 2026.
Honestly I think the 3/4 would be the easier part. Since it's done by state instead of electorates he just needs 38 states, and he got 31 to vote for him. We're also talking about state legislatures, not voters, which means the shenanigans above will also be effective here.
I don't think this is going to be Trump's first step; this is going to be the capstone on a campaign to secure power for the party forever.
I am sincerely hoping I'm wrong, but the last decade has shown me I am not nearly pessimistic enough.
Elections are not run federally, they are run by each state which makes it harder for Republicans to be as aggressive as they'd like to be
Mind you they lost a US house seat this cycle even with Trump winning. They have just a 3 seat majority. They would need a gain of +70 seats in the house in a midterm environment to get to 2/3
On the senate side, Republicans would need to pick up 12(!) seats to get 2/3. In the 2026 map, that's extraordinarily difficult and would require winning extremely deep blue seats. 66 senators is a lot. They would have to win literally every single senate seat up for election in 2026
Assuming they win all the solid red + lean red seats, they would need to defend both senators in North Carolina and Maine to keep 53. Then they'd have to flip the tossups of Michigan and Georgia to get to 55. Then the lean blue Minnesota senate seat to get to 56.
Then the very likely blue seats of New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire to get to 60. Then to get to 66, they would need to win the safe blue states of Oregon, Illinois, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island to get 66
Midterms are usually very unfavorable to the party in power. Even with more stringent voter laws, that would be a tall ask. Flipping safe blue senate senates where dems have state and local control would be insane
And you'd have to flip a large number of state legislature in deep blue states too
Zero.
He has moderate dementia, and will be replaced by JD Vance before the end of his term.
load more comments
(2 replies)
If he lives to the end of this term, 100% that he'll try for a third.
By then, it'll be a battle between Republican Nazis who back him blindly, and Republican Nazis who want a more competent puppet in power. Oh, and people who aren't actively supporting fascism. I doubt they'll make a difference.
view more: next ›
this post was submitted on 07 Jan 2025
55 points (92.3% liked)
Asklemmy
44272 readers
827 users here now
A loosely moderated place to ask open-ended questions
If your post meets the following criteria, it's welcome here!
- Open-ended question
- Not offensive: at this point, we do not have the bandwidth to moderate overtly political discussions. Assume best intent and be excellent to each other.
- Not regarding using or support for Lemmy: context, see the list of support communities and tools for finding communities below
- Not ad nauseam inducing: please make sure it is a question that would be new to most members
- An actual topic of discussion
Looking for support?
Looking for a community?
- Lemmyverse: community search
- sub.rehab: maps old subreddits to fediverse options, marks official as such
- !lemmy411@lemmy.ca: a community for finding communities
~Icon~ ~by~ ~@Double_A@discuss.tchncs.de~
founded 5 years ago
MODERATORS