Cross posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17841591

The World Health Organization has urged China to share data on the origins of the Covid pandemic, five years on from its start in the city of Wuhan.

"This is a moral and scientific imperative," the WHO said in a statement to mark what it called the "milestone" anniversary.

"Without transparency, sharing, and co-operation among countries, the world cannot adequately prevent and prepare for future epidemics and pandemics," it added.

Many scientists think the virus transferred naturally from animals to humans, but some suspicions persist that it escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan.

China has not responded to Monday's WHO statement. In the past it has strongly rejected the lab leak theory.

In September, a team of scientists said it was "beyond reasonable doubt" that the Covid pandemic started with infected animals sold at a market, rather than a laboratory leak.

[...]

[WHO] director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said at the time that at least seven million people had died in the pandemic.

But he added that the true figure was "likely" closer to 20 million deaths - nearly three times the official estimate.

Since then, the WHO has repeatedly warned against complacency about the possible emergence of future Covid-like illnesses.

Dr Ghebreyesus has said the next pandemic "can come at any moment" and has urged the world to be prepared.

[...]

The World Health Organization has urged China to share data on the origins of the Covid pandemic, five years on from its start in the city of Wuhan.

"This is a moral and scientific imperative," the WHO said in a statement to mark what it called the "milestone" anniversary.

"Without transparency, sharing, and co-operation among countries, the world cannot adequately prevent and prepare for future epidemics and pandemics," it added.

Many scientists think the virus transferred naturally from animals to humans, but some suspicions persist that it escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan.

China has not responded to Monday's WHO statement. In the past it has strongly rejected the lab leak theory.

In September, a team of scientists said it was "beyond reasonable doubt" that the Covid pandemic started with infected animals sold at a market, rather than a laboratory leak.

[...]

[WHO] director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said at the time that at least seven million people had died in the pandemic.

But he added that the true figure was "likely" closer to 20 million deaths - nearly three times the official estimate.

Since then, the WHO has repeatedly warned against complacency about the possible emergence of future Covid-like illnesses.

Dr Ghebreyesus has said the next pandemic "can come at any moment" and has urged the world to be prepared.

[...]

The US Treasury Department notified lawmakers on Monday that a China state-sponsored actor infiltrated Treasury workstations in what officials are describing as a “major incident.”

[...] ATreasury official said it was informed by a third-party software service provider on December 8 that a threat actor used a stolen key to remotely access certain Treasury workstations and unclassified documents.

“Based on available indicators, the incident has been attributed to a Chinese state-sponsored Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) actor,” Aditi Hardikar, assistant secretary for management at the US Treasury, wrote in the letter.

A Treasury spokesperson said in a statement to CNN that the compromised service has been taken offline and officials are working with law enforcement and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).

“There is no evidence indicating the threat actor has continued access to Treasury systems or information,” the Treasury spokesperson said.

[...]

Archived version

Weak-kneed responses to attacks on Baltic cables risk allowing the Russia-China axis to conduct free target practice against NATO critical infrastructure, promoting the two countries’ proficiency, interoperability and lethality.

Thanks to this opportunity, Russian crews and their masters ashore will become much better at crippling critical infrastructure connecting NATO states just as Europe is preparing for a defensive war against Moscow’s aggression. And Chinese planners and crews will similarly become more adept at waging this form of hybrid warfare in the Indo-Pacific.

The presence of China-flagged vessels near disruptions to undersea cable infrastructure in Europe in 2024 raises questions about whether Beijing’s involvement was accidental, surveillance-related or part of a coordinated effort. That Beijing calls itself Moscow’s ‘no-limits’ partner suggest its involvement in the suspected sabotage was plausible, if not probable. Even if China wasn’t involved, it will be eager and able to learn from Russia’s experience.

Cross posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17832023

Archived version

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global coal demand is expected to reach unprecedented levels in 2024. In its latest report, "Coal 2024: Analysis and Forecast for 2024," the agency predicts coal consumption will climb to 877 crore tonnes, marking a new record.

The report notes that while global coal demand increased by 1% in 2023, the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years. In 2021, coal demand surged by 7.7% following the COVID-19 recovery, while growth rates moderated to 4.7% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023.

[...]

China, the world's largest coal consumer, will significantly drive global demand. The IEA estimates China's coal consumption will grow by 1% in 2024, reaching 490 crore tonnes. India, the second-largest consumer, is expected to see a 5% increase, bringing its consumption to 130 crore metric tonnes—a level previously achieved only by China.

Conversely, coal demand in developed regions like the European Union and the United States continues to decline. The European Union’s demand is projected to drop by 12% in 2024, while the US is expected to see a 5% decline. However, these decreases are less steep compared to the significant drops in 2023.

[...]

Archived version

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global coal demand is expected to reach unprecedented levels in 2024. In its latest report, "Coal 2024: Analysis and Forecast for 2024," the agency predicts coal consumption will climb to 877 crore tonnes, marking a new record.

The report notes that while global coal demand increased by 1% in 2023, the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years. In 2021, coal demand surged by 7.7% following the COVID-19 recovery, while growth rates moderated to 4.7% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023.

[...]

China, the world's largest coal consumer, will significantly drive global demand. The IEA estimates China's coal consumption will grow by 1% in 2024, reaching 490 crore tonnes. India, the second-largest consumer, is expected to see a 5% increase, bringing its consumption to 130 crore metric tonnes—a level previously achieved only by China.

Conversely, coal demand in developed regions like the European Union and the United States continues to decline. The European Union’s demand is projected to drop by 12% in 2024, while the US is expected to see a 5% decline. However, these decreases are less steep compared to the significant drops in 2023.

[...]

Cross posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17814401

Archived version

Shein, a Chinese retailer, has rapidly risen to compete with the likes of H&M and Zara — and even Amazon. But now France is leading the West''s crackdown on the questionable practices of so-called "fast fashion."

An investigation provides a deep look inside the company's working and sourcing practices.

[...]

There is not a minute to spare on the fourth floor of the sewing workshops building [...] “Here, 20,000 items are produced per day. We handle everything, from the purchase of fabrics to the packaging of the items, including cutting. SHEIN wants us to go fast and gives us fines if we don't meet deadlines,” a foreman says. The conversation ends there. SHEIN prohibits any visits and comments from its official suppliers, explains the director.

SHEIN stays very evasive about its supply chain. The retailer relies heavily on small workshops, unlike other international brands who order large volumes from large factories. SHEIN tells Les Échos it works with 6,000 suppliers but does not publish their names and contact details. That is enough to fuel questions about its production methods.

The lunch break is an opportunity to talk to several workers in the canteen or the eateries adjoining the workshop buildings.

[...]

74 hours a week

They all tell us about their extended working hours: “I work from 8 a.m. until noon, then from 1:30 p.m. until 5:30 p.m. and, after dinner, from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m.,” a seamstress says. The evening is free once a week, either on Saturday or on Sunday. That's a total of 74 hours of work per week.

Under Chinese Labor Law, weekly working hours are limited to a maximum of 44 hours, with 36 additional hours allowed per month. In reality, the textile industry often goes beyond that. What about holidays at SHEIN? One Sunday per month. "If I need more, I can ask my boss but it means I won't earn anything," explains a worker, specifying that she has no contract or social benefits.

[...]

All the workers here are migrants coming from other Chinese provinces [than Guangzhou, where the Shein factory is located] who came to find a job or a better salary. “I earn a little more than in Jiangxi [an adjoining province, north of Guangzhou],” says this 50-year-old worker. Like all the employees [...], she is paid by the piece, which encourages her to increase her hours to produce more.

[...]

The presence of a very young girl among the three workers soon catches the eye. “I sort out the clothes according to their size then I put labels on them,” she explains. “I arrive around 9 a.m. and leave around 10 p.m. depending on overtime.” She says she earns 0.30 yuan per piece (5 cents) and has worked here since she left middle school last summer. How old is she? “My daughter is 16 and just comes to give me a hand,” her mother, who packs blouses on the side, quickly intervenes to end the discussion.

[...]

On its U.S. website, the retailer briefly addressed modern slavery in a short statement and published a code of conduct reminding suppliers of their obligation to comply with all applicable laws, including child labor laws. But it is not uncommon in the textile industry for suppliers to subcontract part of the orders to small workshops with no direct link to the retailer, which makes controls difficult.

It takes a simple visit to the residential area of Nancun, where many small workshops are located, to confirm this. Across an alley, our gaze meets hundreds of bags stamped with the SHEIN logo. The manager, busy ironing long black dresses, says the order comes from “a friend”.

[...]

"It is impossible for SHEIN to control all the workshops and its code of conduct mainly aims at responding to the concerns of foreign media and consumers," explains Huang Yan, professor at the University of Technology of South China, in Guangzhou [where the Shein factory is located]. More generally, [...] the use of small workshops do not make the protection of workers any easier.

[...]

Archived version

Shein, a Chinese retailer, has rapidly risen to compete with the likes of H&M and Zara — and even Amazon. But now France is leading the West''s crackdown on the questionable practices of so-called "fast fashion."

An investigation provides a deep look inside the company's working and sourcing practices.

[...]

There is not a minute to spare on the fourth floor of the sewing workshops building [...] “Here, 20,000 items are produced per day. We handle everything, from the purchase of fabrics to the packaging of the items, including cutting. SHEIN wants us to go fast and gives us fines if we don't meet deadlines,” a foreman says. The conversation ends there. SHEIN prohibits any visits and comments from its official suppliers, explains the director.

SHEIN stays very evasive about its supply chain. The retailer relies heavily on small workshops, unlike other international brands who order large volumes from large factories. SHEIN tells Les Échos it works with 6,000 suppliers but does not publish their names and contact details. That is enough to fuel questions about its production methods.

The lunch break is an opportunity to talk to several workers in the canteen or the eateries adjoining the workshop buildings.

[...]

74 hours a week

They all tell us about their extended working hours: “I work from 8 a.m. until noon, then from 1:30 p.m. until 5:30 p.m. and, after dinner, from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m.,” a seamstress says. The evening is free once a week, either on Saturday or on Sunday. That's a total of 74 hours of work per week.

Under Chinese Labor Law, weekly working hours are limited to a maximum of 44 hours, with 36 additional hours allowed per month. In reality, the textile industry often goes beyond that. What about holidays at SHEIN? One Sunday per month. "If I need more, I can ask my boss but it means I won't earn anything," explains a worker, specifying that she has no contract or social benefits.

[...]

All the workers here are migrants coming from other Chinese provinces [than Guangzhou, where the Shein factory is located] who came to find a job or a better salary. “I earn a little more than in Jiangxi [an adjoining province, north of Guangzhou],” says this 50-year-old worker. Like all the employees [...], she is paid by the piece, which encourages her to increase her hours to produce more.

[...]

The presence of a very young girl among the three workers soon catches the eye. “I sort out the clothes according to their size then I put labels on them,” she explains. “I arrive around 9 a.m. and leave around 10 p.m. depending on overtime.” She says she earns 0.30 yuan per piece (5 cents) and has worked here since she left middle school last summer. How old is she? “My daughter is 16 and just comes to give me a hand,” her mother, who packs blouses on the side, quickly intervenes to end the discussion.

[...]

On its U.S. website, the retailer briefly addressed modern slavery in a short statement and published a code of conduct reminding suppliers of their obligation to comply with all applicable laws, including child labor laws. But it is not uncommon in the textile industry for suppliers to subcontract part of the orders to small workshops with no direct link to the retailer, which makes controls difficult.

It takes a simple visit to the residential area of Nancun, where many small workshops are located, to confirm this. Across an alley, our gaze meets hundreds of bags stamped with the SHEIN logo. The manager, busy ironing long black dresses, says the order comes from “a friend”.

[...]

"It is impossible for SHEIN to control all the workshops and its code of conduct mainly aims at responding to the concerns of foreign media and consumers," explains Huang Yan, professor at the University of Technology of South China, in Guangzhou [where the Shein factory is located]. More generally, [...] the use of small workshops do not make the protection of workers any easier.

[...]

This is an opinionated piece by Peter Pomerantsev, senior fellow at SNF Agora Institute, Johns Hopkins University.--

It’s also in Ukraine that one realises that “freedom” and “sovereignty” exist in a collaborative relationship with others. Ukraine is now defending its neighbours’ freedom from an advancing Russia. Kyiv’s resistance is benefiting Taiwan’s freedom, too.

[...]

As Ukraine prepares for possible negotiations, its leadership is asking what “guarantees” its partners can give. If “international order”, “Europe” and even “Nato” are flaky concepts, how can guarantees be secured into something real? Ukrainians remember the Budapest memorandum of 1994, when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in return for promises from Russia, the US and Britain to respect its borders. Everyone fears a repeat of those empty words. Even if Russia agrees to a ceasefire next year, what’s to stop it rearming and attacking again?

[...]

The idea that freedoms and military production are so interdependent may jar with the pacifist instincts of some progressives. But here Ukraine can offer a pointed lesson. Ever since she won the Nobel peace prize, the Ukrainian human rights lawyer Oleksanda Matviichuk has been gracefully explaining to the world that even though, indeed because, she is a human rights activist, she also advocates for Ukraine’s right to self-defence and to return fire inside Russia at the military bases that are being used to murder Ukrainian civilians. “International law” is also an empty term if it can’t be defended literally.

Cross posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17809174

Archived version

One of China’s leading developers is now on the authorities’ radar for default risk. A major Hong Kong builder is asking lenders to extend loans. Another industry peer is selling an iconic but largely empty mall in Beijing.

As China’s property debt crisis enters its fifth year, there is little indication that distressed developers are finding it easier to repay debt as a slump in home sales continues. Their dollar bonds are still trading at deeply distressed levels, their debt issuance has nearly dried up, and the sector is a notable laggard in stock markets.

Alarm bells went off again in recent weeks, when the banking regulator told top insurers to report their financial exposure to China Vanke to assess how much support the country’s fourth-largest developer by sales needs to avoid default.

[...]

"While recent government policies have helped to arrest the speed of decline, it could take another one or two years for the sector to bottom,” said senior credit analyst Leonard Law at Lucror Analytics.

“Against this backdrop, we can’t rule out the possibility of some more defaults next year, albeit the overall default rate should be much lower than before.”

[...]

The [Chinese government's] rescue measures adopted so far have focused on preventing a collapse in property prices, protecting owners of unfinished apartments and using state funds to help absorb excess supply.

At the same time, policymakers chose to look on as former industry behemoths China Evergrande Group and Country Garden Holdings became defaulters.

This is why the banking regulator’s queries over insurance firms’ exposure to Vanke’s bonds and private debt have drawn much attention. The insurers conducted similar checks in March as fears grew over the builder’s repayment risks.

Separately, Vanke executives have visited several insurers in the past few weeks, urging them not to exercise put options on some private debt that will soon become open to them.

“If there is no turnaround in property sales, asset disposals remain slow in a weak property market, and financial institutions become more cautious and require additional collateral, we believe Vanke could see a liquidity shortage sooner than expected,” Jefferies Financial Group analysts, including Ms Shujin Chen, wrote in a note.

[...]

Vanke’s dollar bond due May 2025 dropped about 10 US cents in the past week to around 80 US cents on the dollar, the biggest weekly decline in more than a year. Its 2027 note also slumped to 49 US cents, signalling investor doubts about full redemption.

Vanke’s woes come at a time when capital markets continue to show weak investor confidence in the sector: mainland Chinese and Hong Kong developers have issued US$67.3 billion (S$91.3 billion) of bonds in 2024, putting the market on track for its smallest annual issuance in at least in a decade.

[...]

In another worrying development, distressed Hong Kong builder New World Development is asking banks to postpone the due dates of some bilateral loans, a move that deepens concerns over its ability to service one of the heaviest debt loads of its kind.

Controlled by the family empire of tycoon Henry Cheng, the developer had total liabilities of HK$220 billion (S$38.4 billion) at the end of June and recorded its first annual loss in two decades.

[...]

"Hong Kong developers are facing a double-whammy in the current down cycle,” said Mr Daniel Fan, credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

“China’s property market, where many of them are involved, shows no sign of a strong recovery, while Hong Kong’s market correction is still ongoing.”

Archived version

One of China’s leading developers is now on the authorities’ radar for default risk. A major Hong Kong builder is asking lenders to extend loans. Another industry peer is selling an iconic but largely empty mall in Beijing.

As China’s property debt crisis enters its fifth year, there is little indication that distressed developers are finding it easier to repay debt as a slump in home sales continues. Their dollar bonds are still trading at deeply distressed levels, their debt issuance has nearly dried up, and the sector is a notable laggard in stock markets.

Alarm bells went off again in recent weeks, when the banking regulator told top insurers to report their financial exposure to China Vanke to assess how much support the country’s fourth-largest developer by sales needs to avoid default.

[...]

"While recent government policies have helped to arrest the speed of decline, it could take another one or two years for the sector to bottom,” said senior credit analyst Leonard Law at Lucror Analytics.

“Against this backdrop, we can’t rule out the possibility of some more defaults next year, albeit the overall default rate should be much lower than before.”

[...]

The [Chinese government's] rescue measures adopted so far have focused on preventing a collapse in property prices, protecting owners of unfinished apartments and using state funds to help absorb excess supply.

At the same time, policymakers chose to look on as former industry behemoths China Evergrande Group and Country Garden Holdings became defaulters.

This is why the banking regulator’s queries over insurance firms’ exposure to Vanke’s bonds and private debt have drawn much attention. The insurers conducted similar checks in March as fears grew over the builder’s repayment risks.

Separately, Vanke executives have visited several insurers in the past few weeks, urging them not to exercise put options on some private debt that will soon become open to them.

“If there is no turnaround in property sales, asset disposals remain slow in a weak property market, and financial institutions become more cautious and require additional collateral, we believe Vanke could see a liquidity shortage sooner than expected,” Jefferies Financial Group analysts, including Ms Shujin Chen, wrote in a note.

[...]

Vanke’s dollar bond due May 2025 dropped about 10 US cents in the past week to around 80 US cents on the dollar, the biggest weekly decline in more than a year. Its 2027 note also slumped to 49 US cents, signalling investor doubts about full redemption.

Vanke’s woes come at a time when capital markets continue to show weak investor confidence in the sector: mainland Chinese and Hong Kong developers have issued US$67.3 billion (S$91.3 billion) of bonds in 2024, putting the market on track for its smallest annual issuance in at least in a decade.

[...]

In another worrying development, distressed Hong Kong builder New World Development is asking banks to postpone the due dates of some bilateral loans, a move that deepens concerns over its ability to service one of the heaviest debt loads of its kind.

Controlled by the family empire of tycoon Henry Cheng, the developer had total liabilities of HK$220 billion (S$38.4 billion) at the end of June and recorded its first annual loss in two decades.

[...]

"Hong Kong developers are facing a double-whammy in the current down cycle,” said Mr Daniel Fan, credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

“China’s property market, where many of them are involved, shows no sign of a strong recovery, while Hong Kong’s market correction is still ongoing.”

The report is very interesting to read (link opens pdf)

What is clear is that costly natural disasters are becoming more frequent, with the average time between billion-dollar events dropping from four months in 1980 to approximately three weeks today. As those risks grow, some insurers are pulling out of states entirely. For example, State Farm and Allstate have left California, and dozens of smaller companies have collapsed or fled Florida and Louisiana.

When that happens, homeowners must turn to government-backed insurers of last resort, which are available in just 26 states and typically cost more than private coverage. Enrollment in those state-run plans has skyrocketed, the JEC report notes, and they now cover more than $1 trillion in assets.

The report also says:

Americans will experience climate risk over the next several decades and beyond much longer than the one-year time frame that insurance policies use to price risk. Insurance policies that are longer than a year can better price the risk that homes face and smooth out the higher costs necessary to account for a changing world. While thirty-year policies that match the length of a conventional mortgage would better align insurance policies with risk to a home, some industry leaders have suggested starting with three-year policies—to begin adapting the business model.

Countries like New Zealand, France, and Japan use public reinsurance programs to support insurance markets facing climate risk. A public reinsurance program could simplify a complicated insurance sector and transfer risks associated with catastrophes to the Federal government.

Pairing this with state and local risk reduction measures and insurance market reforms could ensure that the market is still pricing actual climate risk (and not distorting the price signal) but remove the threat of catastrophic risk that is driving insurance premium increases and leading companies to pull out of markets.