house flipping is a bad practice

I spent the last year looking for a house to buy, and since it took me a year I got to see many of the shit-bucket houses I was looking at (since they were in my price range) get bought up and "flipped" - which usually amounted to just some paint slapped on everything and those fucking grey fake wood vinyl planks that everybody loves these days put down everywhere - and then resold for absurd prices. I respect people that do a good job of renovating houses, but most of these flippers aren't doing that.

Non-owner occupied properties already aren't eligible for the capital gains exclusion. I guess we could make unoccupied houses subject to regular income tax instead of capital gains tax rates would further discourage empty houses. That, and higher property taxes would probably be enough.

But housing is a need and people will keep paying any price to not be homeless, this feels like it leads to massive corporations still owning all of them and paying large taxes they can eat short term and raise to massive prices of rent. Maybe they dump some stock but I'm just not sure it does much other than diversify smaller investors that used property for assets

It's disgusting because airbnbs in my area can have 50% occupancy and do better than a long term, meaning for about 180 days of the year that housing is just artificially decreased supply.

$200/night * 15 days = $3k/mo

Practically all housing development is financed with borrowed money against the property. Given the build-to rent model, the party at the end of the cashflow stream relies on rent checks being paid every month to remain solvent. When the rents stop being collected, at some critical point, some loan that is reliant upon that rental stream will default. When that happens, the properties are called in by the borrower and auctioned off at foreclosure.

Now yes, the major lenders, developers and speculators will spread their risk as much as possible by diversifying their portfolios and try not to be caught short by a problem in any specific market. But when there is a some kind of macroeconomic shock, ALL the markets will suddenly contract and be flooded with foreclosed properties and other rapidly depreciating assets. That's more-or-less what happened in 2007. Massive liquidity injections and historically low interest rates supposedly saved us from a prolonged financial catastrophe then - but there were still a LOT of foreclosures. I also think we are still seeing that situation playing out today. Current housing markets are unsustainable in a climate of higher interest rates. This will all come crashing down, probably sooner than most people expect. When it happens, it happens fast - and of course the reasons will seem obvious with hindsight.

By the way, perhaps you're being ironic - "This time is different" is the defining catchphrase when looking at historical financial crashes: https://www.economist.com/media/pdf/this-time-is-different-reinhart-e.pdf

Yes, there is finite supply and ever-growing demand, however the price of real estate ultimately reflects both the buyer and lender's confidence that the mortgage payment will be met. This can be affected not only by interest rates but by labor market conditions and other factors.

If there is a sudden surge in interest rates in response to some kind of inflationary shock, or the credit market becomes suddenly much more restrictive in terms of lending standards, then housing prices will most certainly fall, simply because the pool of potential buyers at a given price level is smaller.

When pressures on the housing market are coupled with leveraged loans on variable rates going upside down, people will begin dumping their real estate investments. These factors compound to cause a sharp reduction in price. In 2007-8 metro home prices declined up to 50% from their earlier peaks - but seem to have increased about 200% since the bottom, roughly, to where they are today That's quite a considerable appreciation and seems unlikely to be sustained. Maybe I'm wrong - we're just shooting the shit on Lemmy - but looking at what's happened before, real estate seems overheated - but it may well keep on boiling for all I know.

It should be fucking illegal for corporations to own single-family homes, full stop.

I don't think that's even remotely the case for the vast majority of the workforce. It takes an incredible position of privelege to think otherwise.

For the average US citizen, they have a spare ~$200/month (see my comment history for context) the median US home price is $420,385 according to redfin. That means your closing costs (4%) + minimum down payment (3.5%) for an FHA loan would be (.075 * 420385) $31,528 which would take 157 months assuming you had no emergencies or extra expenses at all. Leaving you destitute to pay your mortgage on a home which will have inevitably increased in price since you started saving.

It's a pipe dream for most US citizens, everyone has surprise expenses. People lose jobs, people buy things for leisure (what's the point of living if you don't?) Once they spend their 13 years of perfectly saved money to buy the average house, how do they afford the inevitable expenses? Save another 13 years to pay for another roof? Unfortunately now they have a mortgage which will be more expensive than their rent.

So I'm getting closer to 30 so I think this relates to me and my experience well to share.

I've been paid a pretty reasonable pay middle class+ generally just shy of that perfect $70,000 of legend on average. Managed to pay off my absurd credit card debt from college and stopped payments on my college loans. I don't have a car I bile to get around and am generally frugal and had my company helping pay for a lot my stuff

I had about $11,000 pre COVID and that was practically all wiped out during the worst of it because Florida didn't believe in unemployment. At which point I was 26ish.

I think pre COVID I may have actually managed to hit over $30,000 by early 30s enough to actually put down on a house.

I now make over $70,000 a year... I have saved about $2,000 this last year living the same frugal life, still no car, still no debt payments really... I don't think your math works anymore. It's so completely soul crushing now how fast I went from doing ok to being in a gutter.