Polling aggregators like Nate Silver and 538 take those Republican leans into account.

You can read about it and their methodology here:

https://www.natesilver.net/p/are-republican-pollsters-flooding

Edit: lol, love the "I was told there would be no fact checking" attitude on the downvotes.

It's the result of settling for "not trump".

To some people "good" is binary. So they do think both parties will fuck them over economically and not actually fix the shit that honestly the majority of Americans agree need fixed.

So all the economic policy is a write off.

That leaves social issues they don't really understand because they were raised vaguely religious and have fallen for right wing propaganda.

All politicians are corrupt liars

Is something you will hear damn near anytime politics come up in deep red areas. Which is why yelling about how trump is a corrupt liar to your face turns blue doesn't accomplish anything.

They know that, they're not even in denial about.

To be clear, I'm voting D. But the county I grew up has never voted less than 95% for trump.

That's what they're ok with voting for him tho. But if Dems ran a charismatic progressive who people believed was different and authentic?

Well, look what Obama did

While moderates have favored the Democratic candidate in each of the past five elections, Barack Obama gained the support of more voters in the ideological “middle” than did either John Kerry or Al Gore before him. He won at least half the votes of independents (52% vs. 49% for Kerry), suburban voters (50% vs. 47% for Kerry), Catholics (54% vs. 47% for Kerry), and other key swing groups in the electorate.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2008/11/05/inside-obamas-sweeping-victory/

His gains wasn't from progressives, we always show up. His gains were because people in those deep red areas believe all politicians are corrupt liars, and if a rare one shows up that seems authentic, they don't give a fuck about party labels.

I think it's the same sort of reactions that you see on the vote pattern for this post or anything else suggesting Kamala might not win.

People don't want (or maybe nowadays lack the capacity) to hear/read/engage critically with news they find upsetting. So you get these echo chambers, immune to outside info.

From someone who doesn't follow non-Conservative news, inflation is absurd, housing is increasingly out of reach and uncontrolled immigration is a problem. I personally think some of these are global issues, some are deep systemic and other than immigration, I'd be stunned if the republicans actually addressed those issues. But, the same mental habits that lead Lemmy to downvote statistical reporting because we don't like what it says are the same that prevent trump voters from changing.

Yes, but their "house effects" (how much their polls lean Republican or Democrat) are accounted for by every worthwhile polling aggregator.

If they were just taking the averages and spitting out results, well, it'd be nonsensical. You could maybe argue that Republican pollsters have tweaked their systems to be more trumpy but that'd be a pretty huge red flag and mark you as completely non trustworthy in your professional field.

You can read Silver's more in depth and interesting explanation here:

https://www.natesilver.net/p/are-republican-pollsters-flooding