I have known about this situation since about August from 338canada.com. Look at this BS in BC: https://338canada.com/bc.htm. 44% of expected combined opposition votes for 16% seats, vs. 47% votes for 84% of the province's federal seats.

It's also been discussed at the Tyee https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2024/12/03/Poilievre-Free-Ride-Power/

It's another situation where very little of the media is casting any judgement to Mr. Whiny, and Trudeau is being blamed for everything from unpleasant weather (not related to the climate crisis) to waking up on the wrong side of the bed. No one is discussing or questioning Poilievre whether he is ready to deal with Trump, which a good portion of his base wants him to walk over Canada.

Vote splitting, an unenthused electorate are factors pointing to an amazing opportunity for politically myopic Conservatives to come in and wreck our country. We are already preparing the transition power despite the election not even having started.

I honestly think Trudeau should stop giving a fuck, put on KISS makeup, break the silly quibbling that the House is doing by releasing goddamn everything, put in any form of non FPTP system that is even slightly improved, and just go out like the rock star he deserves to be.

I like how we have 2 parties that keep getting voted in and fucking things up and the flame keeps getting bigger every time they pass off the baton and the NDP are in the corner blasting themselves in the face with the fire extinguisher.

Writ's not been dropped, only poll that matters is the one on election day, this shit happens every single cycle, polls tend to change a lot once there's actual campaigning. Don't preemptively give up and accept a Tory government as an inevitability.

The Tories are out door knocking and seemingly on the edge of campaigning now (seen Tory lawn signs for remembrance day) why aren't the NDP or grits? We seemingly let the right control messaging all the bloody time and just constantly play catchup.

Keep in mind those are the probabilities should an election occur today, not a prediction of how things will play out in a year's time. There's a whole lot of campaigning to happen and a few pieces of legislature (most notably people will begin to benefit from public dental).

That said, it is pretty bleak. IMO I think the liberals are keeping Trudeau so that he can be the fall guy and not taint whoever is next. I don't think a weak coalition is entirely off the table though if CPC makes enough mistakes and leftists are strategic.

I posted an article with a headline about Trudeau’s GST holiday and $200 checks signalling that he’s out of ideas or that it ‘smacks of desperation’. Lemmy.ca didn’t seem to like it much. But I look at the gesture like, “that’s the best you can do for a fighting chance at forming a government?”

While obviously this helps the campaign, I think the primary point of this is to try and delay the impacts of the canpost strike by encouraging people to hold off on shopping until the GST free period. Another heavy action against a union could trigger a snap election, this is an attempt to avoid that, although whether this helps canpost or the workers is debatable.

Realistically, can/will anything be done, even for a greater chance at a Conservative minority, never mind an ABC government?

The Liberals have been running on "we aren't the Conservatives" since the early 2000s. They got into government when they articulated a vision in 2015. It helped that Harper had hit his sell-buy date, but whatever.

The ABC thing feels like crying wolf. It only works for so long. Meanwhile, the Liberals haven't provided a vision (or likeable policy) since the pandemic. It's easy to see why voters want to switch it up.

Yes look atworld politics. The incumbents are being voted out all over the place. Times are tough and people are voting out the standing government over it all over the world. I don't see Canada being any different.

They are beholden to corporate interests. Their options are limited because they can't go against the interests of their overlords. The CPC have the exact same shackles, but since they aren't governing, they can pretend otherwise.

I feel some deja vu watching Trudeau refuse to step aside (early enough), just like with Biden.

I don't think it's analogous. The CBC poll aggregate is even more optimistic than 338 and 338 has said libs are sub 1% for a long time, since the start of the year:

https://338canada.com/federal.htm

Biden was never in the pit that badly.

If an election was held tomorrow and the NDP weren't competitive in my riding, I wouldn't bother voting.

PP. Hehehehe I’m such a child 🤪