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Shoigu's Statements Contrasted: March '22 vs Sept '23
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this post was submitted on 15 Sep 2023
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"We have no other options" and him shrugging honestly made me laugh. What a bizarre situation. He has Putin breathe down his neck.
You can really feel the "well, fuck" mood in his attitude
You can see that in his mind it's lost already but he can't say it without going bye bye
That's how I read it, too. Putin won't allow the military to withdraw, even if everyone on the ground knows that that would be the only sensible option. For everyone. (Except Putin, maybe, although even he could give it a positive spin if he wanted to.)
Wouldn't Russia shatter if they were fully defeated by Ukraine? I mean, if they withdraw, Ukraine won't stop before they get Crimea back, and that would be a resounding defeat for the "second army of the world". Considering how nationalistic Russia became, how would it survive such a defeat?
They can withdraw, delay, mobilize more people, wait for the West to get tired, Trump to get elected, etc.
Ukraine needs constant supply of money and equipment from the West in order to survive. Their economy is fucked and they cant really produce the military equipment needed to fight Russia. What will happen if Trump gets elected? Or Le Pen? Or if opposition parties in the West, start using the cost of the war for propaganda?
This is why Ukraine is under immense pressure to get results out of the counteroffensive.
Of course! I was reacting to the idea of Russia withdrawing. Wouldn't that mean they leave Ukraine? That would be devastating to them.
I bet Russia is indeed betting on time. Well, actually they need to hold until Ukraine settle for a cease fire, or supplies from the west stop coming.
They withdrew from Kherson pretty successfully. They dont have to withdraw all the way to Russia. They just need to prepare new defenses and fall back where they can hold with fewer losses.
I would imagine Ukraine would not stop the war of they withdraw anything. Each victory of Ukraine is a powerful moral boost for them.
What Russia is doing right now is the right move for them: making the advance of Ukraine as slow and painful as possible. Until they get discouraged or west support falls out. But they need to make each km of progress difficult, or both the west and Ukraine will see that it is actually possible to make Russia withdraw its forces.
He looks to the right a lot, especially on the last question. Looking right is indicative of using the creative part of the mind, rather than factual or logical.
Can you cite some studies for this, please? Preferably reproduced, peer reviewed ones?
I don't mean to be mean, but I have heard things like this and from everything I have been able to gather, there's no evidence for being able to tell how someone is thinking just from their movements or tics.
Further digging leads me to believe you are right, and some of this body language expertise is about as valid as chiropractors. I do think he's looking around a lot, and on the "who will win?" there is a very exaggerated sidewards glance at the same time as he does his shrug. None of this appears normal behaviour for him. I can't back it up scientifically, you are correct.
Reasonableness on the Fediverse is so fucking refreshing.
FWIW: my only problem is the with the pseudoscience, your picking up his odd behavior is totally correct. I wouldn't trust this guy as far as I could throw him, just not sure what we can decide scientifically from clips like this.